The race between artificial intelligence and quantum computing intensifies as two speculative technology stocks vie for investor attention in 2026. BigBear.ai and D-Wave Quantum represent contrasting plays on next-generation computation, each with distinct strengths and challenges.

What Happened

In fiscal year 2025, BigBear.ai reported revenue of approximately $127.7 million, declining nearly 19 percent year-over-year alongside a net loss approaching $293.9 million. The company derives over half its income from U.S. government contracts. D-Wave Quantum posted a dramatic revenue surge of roughly 178.5 percent year-over-year, reaching $24.6 million in FY 2025, but the growth came with a net loss of about $355.1 million, resulting in a net margin of over -1,400 percent. The company's Leap cloud platform and partnerships with major corporations underscore its ambition to commercialize quantum processing.

Why This Matters

For investors, the choice hinges on tolerance for different risk profiles. BigBear.ai's reliance on defense and intelligence spending offers near-term visibility through established contracts, while D-Wave Quantum's trajectory depends on whether the broader quantum computing market matures as expected. Both companies remain unprofitable, but their paths to sustainability differ significantly.

Key Takeaways

  • BigBear.ai generated $127.7 million in FY 2025 revenue, down 19.3 percent year-over-year, with a net loss of $293.9 million.
  • D-Wave Quantum achieved 178.5 percent revenue growth to $24.6 million in FY 2025, yet posted a net loss of $355.1 million.
  • BigBear.ai's revenue is heavily concentrated with U.S. government clients, comprising roughly 51 percent of total sales.
  • D-Wave Quantum's cloud platform and corporate partnerships aim to build a commercial quantum ecosystem.
  • BigBear.ai carries a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.0x, while D-Wave Quantum's stands at approximately 0.1x.
  • Both stocks lack positive Forward P/E valuations, trading at discounted price-to-sales multiples.
  • BigBear.ai's growing backlog and margin improvement suggest a potentially more near-term sustainable trajectory than D-Wave's early-stage commercialization risk.

Conclusion

While D-Wave Quantum captures attention with its pioneering hardware and cloud services, the gap between bookings momentum and recognized revenue presents notable uncertainty for near-term investors. BigBear.ai, by contrast, combines government-backed revenue streams with improving operational metrics, offering a clearer, though still long, path toward profitability. For 2026 investors comfortable with early-stage tech risk, BigBear.ai presents a more defined line of sight toward sustainable growth, though due diligence on contract renewals and accounting adjustments remains essential.