Introduction

Nigeria's raw material trade balance swung to a N466.79 billion surplus in the first half of 2026, marking a dramatic reversal from the N1.67 trillion deficit recorded in the same period of 2025. The shift signals a significant turning point after years of consistent shortfalls.

What Happened

According to the National Bureau of Statistics and Nairametrics Research, raw material exports rose 105.9% year-on-year to N3.84 trillion in H1 2026, while imports fell 4.5% to N3.37 trillion over the same period. The turnaround was especially pronounced in Q2, where exports surged to N2.31 trillion, about 60% of H1 total, up 181% from Q2 2025. Throughout the first half of the year, the country moved from a narrow quarterly deficit in Q1 to a strong surplus in Q2, representing the first time in the reviewed data that raw material exports consistently exceeded imports.

Why This Matters

For years, Nigeria has recorded annual raw material trade deficits dating back to at least 2016, with imports consistently outpacing exports. The H1 2026 surplus breaks that pattern and represents the largest half-year improvement in the reviewed period. The shift matters for Nigeria's manufacturing sector, which has long relied on imported inputs, and could signal the early effects of efforts to boost local production and reduce import dependence.

Key Takeaways

  • Raw material exports grew from N1.85 trillion in H1 2025 to N3.84 trillion in H1 2026, a year-on-year increase of over 100%
  • Imports declined from N3.53 trillion to N3.37 trillion, dropping 4.5% despite an overall upward trend in previous years
  • Q2 2026 alone generated a N515.40 billion surplus, compared to an N899.63 billion deficit in Q2 2025
  • The full-year 2025 deficit of N3.80 trillion narrowed significantly, with exports rising to N4.10 trillion from N1.85 trillion in 2024
  • Analysts note the improvement came after deficits widened sharply in 2023 and 2024, particularly when imports reached N6.64 trillion

Conclusion

The N466.79 billion surplus in H1 2026 is a notable departure from Nigeria's recent trade history, but sustained performance in subsequent quarters will determine whether this reflects a structural shift or a temporary adjustment. Ongoing initiatives to increase domestic raw material production, such as those advocated by the Raw Materials Research and Development Council, may play a key role in maintaining any positive momentum.