Introduction

Nigeria's daily petrol supply contracted by 23% in September 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery operated above installed capacity. Falling imports and declining local receipts pushed retail prices higher across major cities, underscoring the fragility of the nation's fuel market.

What Happened

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, total petrol receipts dropped from 50.5 million litres per day in August to 38.7 million litres in September. Domestic deliveries fell 21%, from 35.9 million to 28.5 million litres daily, while imports plummeted 30%, from 14.6 million to 10.2 million litres. Despite a 13% increase in Dangote refinery output, average daily domestic deliveries decreased, and the facility redirected significant volumes toward exports.

Key figures include:

  • Dangote supplied an average of 28.5 million litres daily to the domestic market, nearly 2.8 times the volume from imports.
  • The refinery exported 15.47 million litres per day, a 59% increase from August.
  • Diesel supply slumped to its lowest level in 13 months, falling 40% to 8.7 million litres daily.
  • LPG (cooking gas) receipts rose 9% domestically, accounting for about 96% of total supply.

Why This Matters

The sharp decline in petrol receipts coincides with retail prices exceeding N1,400 per litre in several cities, squeezing household budgets and highlighting the gap between local production and domestic distribution. With consumption rising 7% to 44.4 million litres daily, the shortfall places pressure on government pricing policies and underscores the need for improved supply chain logistics.

Key Takeaways

  • Petrol supply fell 23% year-on-month despite Dangote Refinery's record production.
  • Imports dropped 30%, making the market more dependent on local output.
  • Diesel receipts hit a 13-month low, falling 40% as exports surged.
  • LPG supply improved, with domestic sources meeting 96% of demand.
  • Modular refineries operated at varying capacities, contributing 4.3% of national diesel supply.

Conclusion

September's fuel data reveals a paradox: record refinery output coexisting with falling domestic supply and rising prices. As Nigeria navigates the transition toward greater local refining, policymakers and stakeholders must address distribution bottlenecks, incentivise domestic consumption of locally produced fuels, and monitor market dynamics to stabilise prices for consumers.