Introduction

A new Reuters/Ipsos survey reveals a noticeable shift in voter enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 midterms, with former President Donald Trump's base showing lower excitement levels than supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris.

What Happened

The poll found that 30 percent of Trump voters describe themselves as 'very enthusiastic' about casting ballots in the upcoming midterms, while 21 percent express a moderate level of excitement. Just under 10 percent are lukewarm about voting, and 10 percent say they are 'very' unenthusiastic. Another 30 percent said they are neither enthusiastic nor unenthusiastic, or skipped the question entirely.

In contrast, 48 percent of Harris voters said they are 'very enthusiastic' to vote, followed by 18 percent who are just enthusiastic. Only 7 percent are lukewarm and 6 percent are 'very' unenthusiastic, with about 20 percent saying they are neither or did not answer the question.

The survey also tracks job approval, showing Trump's approval rating remains steady at 32 percent, with 65 percent disapproving of his presidency. Additionally, the poll notes that support among Hispanic voters has shifted, with 24 percent approving of Trump's job performance and 26 percent backing GOP candidates seeking victory in November.

Why This Matters

The decline in Trump voter enthusiasm comes as the president continues to campaign aggressively, including remarks about the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on gas prices. Trump has described high gas costs as a 'very inexpensive price to pay' to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and faced backlash after suggesting the Iranian regime could 'take out' major West Coast cities, prompting California Governor Gavin Newsom to call for invoking the 25th Amendment.

Political analysts suggest that waning voter enthusiasm could affect Republican prospects in competitive House and Senate races, especially as the Iran conflict stretches into its eighth month and the possibility of the conflict influencing congressional control enters the campaign discourse.

The survey, conducted Sept. 30 through Oct. 5, included 2,848 respondents and carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points.Key Takeaways

  • Only 30% of Trump voters are 'very enthusiastic' about voting in the 2026 midterms, compared to 48% of Harris supporters.
  • Trump's job approval holds at 32%, with two-thirds of respondents disapproving.
  • Hispanic voter support for Trump and GOP candidates has shifted, with 24% approving of Trump's performance and 26% backing Republican candidates.
  • The survey's margin of error is 3 percentage points, based on 2,848 respondents interviewed Sept. 30–Oct. 5.
  • Voter enthusiasm trends may influence competitive races for control of Congress as the Iran conflict and gas prices remain top voter concerns.

Conclusion

As the 2026 midterms approach, the enthusiasm gap between Trump and Harris voters highlights a key dynamic for both parties strategizing ahead of Election Day. Watching how voter sentiment evolves—particularly on issues like immigration, energy, and foreign policy—will be critical for predicting turnout and congressional outcomes.